Four major family industry chains transferring to mainland China

The international ontology giants represented by the "four major families" deeply cultivate the Chinese market, sink channels, accelerate localization, and bring new opportunities for the transfer of production capacity to China and the reset of supply chains; The second is for domestic enterprises to cope with market competition and increase production capacity. The supply of foreign reducer giants is insufficient, and the acceptance of domestic reducers has significantly increased; Thirdly, as the most core, cost-effective, and technologically advanced component of robots, domestic reducers lack breakthroughs in core technology from 0 to 1, but rather cost reduction and stability issues caused by equipment amortization and process polishing. After years of investment and process accumulation, they have reached the critical stage of mass production.

The production capacity of the four major families in China will expand more than fivefold in the next five years.

In recent years, the production capacity and output of the four major families in China have been continuously increasing (excluding Fanuc, which has not been producing in China due to institutional reasons), and it has significantly accelerated in 2018.

We expect that in the context of the Chinese robot market standing out, the four major families' production capacity in China will continue to expand, and from 2019 to 2023, the production capacity and output will increase to more than five times the current level.

Market: Accelerated expansion of domestic robot industry development

According to MIRDATABANK's monitoring of China's robot sales in 2017, the top tier domestic companies in terms of ontology sales include Everett, Aston, Zhongweixing, Guangzhou Qifan, Xinshida, Xinsong Robotics, Liqun Automation, Huanyan, etc. On the one hand, they are continuously expanding their production capacity, and on the other hand, their capacity utilization rate is constantly climbing.

Supply: The supply of foreign giants is tight, and the acceptance of domestic RV reducers has significantly increased

Nabotsk, the world's largest RV giant (supplying over 80% of global robot RV reducers), has been slow to expand production and continues to have insufficient production capacity. The other two RV giants Sumitomo Heavy Machinery's gearbox business is becoming increasingly marginalized, while Spinea's gearbox business in Slovakia may be strategically abandoned. The supply of RV by foreign giants is insufficient, and domestic enterprises are facing huge opportunities.

Nabotesk: Slow production expansion and continuous shortage of production capacity

Nabotesk is the absolute leader in the global market for RV reducers, with a global market share of over 60%, and a global market share of over 80% for pure RV reducers. At present, there are two major production factories, the Tianjin factory in Japan and the Changzhou factory in China. In 2018, the production of reducers was around 840000 units. In the future capacity expansion plan, Nabo will mainly focus on expanding the production capacity of the Tianjin factory (currently 600000 units/year), supplemented by the expansion of the Changzhou factory (currently 200000 units in the first phase and 200000 units in the second phase under construction). The production capacity of Nabo reducers will not significantly expand in the next 5 years. Firstly, due to the complexity of reducer production itself, simple equipment investment cannot increase production capacity; Second, Japanese enterprises are very cautious about fixed assets investment and will not easily expand production after experiencing the foam era.

Nabo's delivery time is too long, resulting in a significant increase in the acceptance of domestic RV reducers

Starting from the end of 2016, Nabo's new orders have continued to be full, with component orders exceeding 30% year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2017, exceeding the company's existing production capacity and continuously extending delivery times.

The delivery time of Nabo in 2018 has been extended to 6 months